U.S. sub to the global financial market turmoil has sounded the alarm risk. Construction Bank Research Department has released the report pointed out that while China's is not typical of the sub-mortgage market, but China's housing mortgage loans in the same risk, and is gradually into the high risk of default.
Construction Bank report cited a group of data, we should pay great attention: workers in the construction real estate loans in the three major lines of individual housing loans by the end of 2005 the 1012723000000 the end of 2006 rose to 1.176066 trillion. Individual housing by the end of 2005 non-performing loans of 18.442 billion up to the end of 2006 of 19.241 billion. After the author, the 2005 non-performing rate of individual housing loans was 1.82 percent in 2006 to 1.636 percent. Never yield, far lower than other loans, and in 2006 than 2005 non-performing rate is also available in a downward trend. It is precisely because of this factor, all commercial banks regarded as personal housing loans to deal with high-quality loans, to relax the conditions, scheduling of credit funds, a large number of loans. From international experience, individual housing loans of exposure period is usually 3-8 years. China's commercial banks due to the real estate particularly in urban housing prices rose the impact of this blow-out type of mortgage a few years, increased rapidly. Once the real estate market changes, does not rule out a number of years after the outbreak of risk concentration. Apart from this factor, leading to personal loans in a number of other risk factors also cause for concern.
At present prices climbed steadily, community, including commercial banks, universal form of long-term rise in house prices expected to produce the individual housing loans almost no risk of thinking. In this ideological domination, the United States has led to sub-loan crisis occurred in a very similar reasons: commercial banks that are unable to return a loan principal and interest of loans, the banks to recover the auction house can pay principal and interest. U.S. loan companies did not expect that the United States, all sectors of the prevailing prices up not only the expected broken down, the property market was a sharp diving, housing prices can not cover loan principal and interest. China's housing prices down if a situation would not exclude the possibility of similar cases. This must attach great importance.
There is another point with the United States, loan-to-the reasons for the crisis also very similar. That is, repeatedly raising interest rates, greatly increased the financial burden of debt payments, resulting in loss of ability to repay borrowers, the loss of confidence in repayment. Since 2004, successive U.S. interest rate increase 17 times, the burden of heavy debt payments can be imagined. China on September 14 after the latest interest rate increase as in October 2004 has been less than three years in the first nine interest rate hike, this year is the fifth since the interest rate increase. Although not every time the rate of increase, but loans for people who buy a house, for several times the cumulative interest rate increase, from quantitative change and has produced some qualitative change. It was estimated that this interest rate increase after a two qualitative change: First of all, 24 of the loan, the interest on the principal amount over the first time. Second, the first interest payment than the rent. If raising interest rates again this year, borrowers will increasingly heavy burden. Once the borrower's income situation of instability, most likely a breach of contract, resulting in credit risk.
More than two sub-loan crisis with the United States are surprisingly similar reasons, if coupled with China's housing mortgage loans in the mortgage and false fail to strictly guard the pass makes some do not meet the conditions of the loan borrowers are potential risks in China's housing mortgage loans are Step by step into the breach high-risk period is not alarmist talk. While not typical of China's secondary mortgage market, individual housing loans accounted for the entire loan ratio is not large, non-performing rate is not high, similar to the United States in sub-loan crisis is unlikely, however, the risk in lending itself It is not possible.
Therefore, the secondary mortgage loan to the United States a lesson from the crisis in the real estate market in a rapid development trend, the real estate market risks increase the cohesion circumstances, we must strengthen supervision of financial institutions to speed up and improve the internal control mechanism, and guide rational management of commercial banks, There must not be blindly release of personal housing mortgage loans phenomenon.
Construction Bank report cited a group of data, we should pay great attention: workers in the construction real estate loans in the three major lines of individual housing loans by the end of 2005 the 1012723000000 the end of 2006 rose to 1.176066 trillion. Individual housing by the end of 2005 non-performing loans of 18.442 billion up to the end of 2006 of 19.241 billion. After the author, the 2005 non-performing rate of individual housing loans was 1.82 percent in 2006 to 1.636 percent. Never yield, far lower than other loans, and in 2006 than 2005 non-performing rate is also available in a downward trend. It is precisely because of this factor, all commercial banks regarded as personal housing loans to deal with high-quality loans, to relax the conditions, scheduling of credit funds, a large number of loans. From international experience, individual housing loans of exposure period is usually 3-8 years. China's commercial banks due to the real estate particularly in urban housing prices rose the impact of this blow-out type of mortgage a few years, increased rapidly. Once the real estate market changes, does not rule out a number of years after the outbreak of risk concentration. Apart from this factor, leading to personal loans in a number of other risk factors also cause for concern.
At present prices climbed steadily, community, including commercial banks, universal form of long-term rise in house prices expected to produce the individual housing loans almost no risk of thinking. In this ideological domination, the United States has led to sub-loan crisis occurred in a very similar reasons: commercial banks that are unable to return a loan principal and interest of loans, the banks to recover the auction house can pay principal and interest. U.S. loan companies did not expect that the United States, all sectors of the prevailing prices up not only the expected broken down, the property market was a sharp diving, housing prices can not cover loan principal and interest. China's housing prices down if a situation would not exclude the possibility of similar cases. This must attach great importance.
There is another point with the United States, loan-to-the reasons for the crisis also very similar. That is, repeatedly raising interest rates, greatly increased the financial burden of debt payments, resulting in loss of ability to repay borrowers, the loss of confidence in repayment. Since 2004, successive U.S. interest rate increase 17 times, the burden of heavy debt payments can be imagined. China on September 14 after the latest interest rate increase as in October 2004 has been less than three years in the first nine interest rate hike, this year is the fifth since the interest rate increase. Although not every time the rate of increase, but loans for people who buy a house, for several times the cumulative interest rate increase, from quantitative change and has produced some qualitative change. It was estimated that this interest rate increase after a two qualitative change: First of all, 24 of the loan, the interest on the principal amount over the first time. Second, the first interest payment than the rent. If raising interest rates again this year, borrowers will increasingly heavy burden. Once the borrower's income situation of instability, most likely a breach of contract, resulting in credit risk.
More than two sub-loan crisis with the United States are surprisingly similar reasons, if coupled with China's housing mortgage loans in the mortgage and false fail to strictly guard the pass makes some do not meet the conditions of the loan borrowers are potential risks in China's housing mortgage loans are Step by step into the breach high-risk period is not alarmist talk. While not typical of China's secondary mortgage market, individual housing loans accounted for the entire loan ratio is not large, non-performing rate is not high, similar to the United States in sub-loan crisis is unlikely, however, the risk in lending itself It is not possible.
Therefore, the secondary mortgage loan to the United States a lesson from the crisis in the real estate market in a rapid development trend, the real estate market risks increase the cohesion circumstances, we must strengthen supervision of financial institutions to speed up and improve the internal control mechanism, and guide rational management of commercial banks, There must not be blindly release of personal housing mortgage loans phenomenon.
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