25 Jul 2008

Housing loans will be non-peak arrival

"Is the third of the households." Miss Li some melancholy. This year, Miss Li occupied by the unit owners because the two have not been available for months, the auction house by the court. An interview with this reporter when the "third households" are moving. Miss Li is occupied by Beijing's East Third Ring edge of a so-called "hot spring sites," the high-end properties, as close to CBD, so the value of owner-occupied and investment have been very good.

"The front two are doing business, the business may be bad, not months on loan, the house was on the bank to withdraw the last of the auction by the court." Miss Li said, "This is because families like the house fried encumbered Stock paid. "

Over the past year or so, as one of the central bank raised lending rates and tighten lending initiatives Jian Guanceng the continuous introduction of the resident not only more pressure on the capital strand breaks Chaofang also a few passengers.

According to the Bank of China Beijing Branch of the credit departments understand that the current mortgage default to those three categories of people most: First, individual operators or owners of private enterprises, although their income is not high but stable, once the very poor management May not be able to monthly repayment of loans; second is not fully equipped to purchase the conditions of young people, eager for marriage or worried about housing prices continue to rise ahead of factors such as purchases, in the absence of "the resources", there are some large foreign debt , Can easily lose their ability to repay; Third, the real estate collateral for other investments (Chao Gupiao, etc.) failure, and loans Chaofang a failure.

"It is not a lot of people not from the loans ah» "Miss Li asked reporters. The latest data released by the central bank seems to prove: Miss Li is not only the feelings of her own.

November 8, 07, the central bank announced a "third-quarter monetary policy implementation report" ( "Report"), the report pointed out: "Mortgage lending growth in consumption soon, the default risk has been the rise of the trend, if housing prices sharply Fluctuations, is prone to lead non-performing loans of commercial banks surged. "This is the first time the central bank issued a warning to mortgage default risk, mortgage default risk from rapid growth in mortgage and housing prices continued to grow at two levels.

Report data show: September 07, 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide housing sales price rose 8.9 percent, or faster 0.7 percent the previous month. Among them, Shenzhen, Beihai, Urumqi, Beijing and other cities housing sales price or higher year-on-year, Shenzhen has been for 20 consecutive months of year-on-year increase of over 10%, which in September to 20.5 percent; Beijing for 17 months or more than 8 percent year-on-year, 9 The month is as high as 13.3 percent.

Although prices are climbing, but residents on the purchase of housing demand is still high, housing sales increased substantially. The first three quarters of this year, the sales of commercial property area of 474 million square meters, an increase of 32.1 percent, this ratio than the same period last year to speed up 21.6 percent.

At the same time, residents of house purchase loans have surged. The first three quarters of this year, the residents of households purchase up to 2.86 trillion yuan loan balance than the beginning of this year increased by 592.4 billion yuan, an increase of 31.4 percent, and a year-on-year increase of 13.5%.

The central bank report also showed that: 07 deadline to the end of September, the balance of Renminbi loans of financial institutions was 25.9 trillion yuan, up 17.1 percent year-on-year growth rate than the 1.9 percentage point higher than the beginning of increased 3.36 trillion yuan, The number is higher than last year.

As early as in mid-September 07, the Ministry of Construction Bank study published in the latest report on the Tip: China's housing mortgage loans are gradually into the default high-risk period.

The report said, in recent years, China's individual housing amount of bad loans rose trend. Data show that workers in the building housing the three major lines of non-performing loans from the end of 2005 increased by 18.442 billion yuan in 2006 to the end of 19.241 billion yuan.

From international experience, individual housing loans of exposure period is usually three to eight years. In recent years the central bank has repeatedly raising interest rates, personal loan to pay the ever-increasing circumstances, the domestic commercial banks individual housing loans within a period of time in the past have gradually into the default high-risk period. The report also believes that China's housing mortgage loans in the mortgage and false gatekeeper makes some do not meet strict conditions of borrowers receive loans is China's mortgage risk.

CCB's risk awareness

East sub-sector is definitely the eyes of bank credit quality customers, young high-paying, steady work, but also education, family, fixed assets, but he still had problems in loans, the purchase because he is "Second Suite."

September 27, 07, the People's Bank of China and China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly promulgated the "on the strengthening of commercial real estate credit management notice", which specifically states: "has been used for the purchase of housing loans, for the purchase of second Sets (including) more than the housing loan ratio of first payment shall not be less than 40 percent, lending rates may not be lower than the People's Bank of China announced earlier the same level of 1.1 times the benchmark rate. "

"The central bank is Dongzhen Ge, issued a mandatory order, banks must be implemented." Bank of China Beijing Branch, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the Finance Section is responsible for the "China Economic Weekly", "In fact, The central bank in 03 and 04 during issued a similar order, but the trip was a wide-scale implementation. "

The responsible person in the mortgage business has been for many years, "In fact, if the risk assessment alone, in all varieties of loans, individual housing loans of the risk is relatively low, all banks belong to high-quality business."

To tighten the "quality business" certainly the profitability of commercial banks and contrary to nature, then the positive performance of individual banks simply because the policy response to calls »

As early as the central bank and the CBRC promulgated the policy before the bank and other banks have begun in some areas "initiative" to tighten the two sets mortgage, the bank issued by the Research Department report also revealed that the bank has been in the high-level thinking, " High-quality business "- the issue of personal loans.

Construction Bank, as the individual housing loan business of the largest banks, in this "Second Suite" turmoil "positive performance", not only in the first policy tightening, "two sets Mortgages", but also in policy implementation details have been taken to households for The units that the more stringent standards in Beijing and other key regions, will be the "suite" of the down payment ratio to 50 percent.

Construction Bank, some of this "radical" performance, not only reminded people in the last round of the regulation and control of real estate (1993 ~ 1997), the "leader" of all the bank encountered.

1997, the real estate bubble pushed broken, countless Lanwei Lou and banking bad debts became a major asset, because the real estate loan business orders up, the scenery of the most prosperous Construction Bank, the last in this "catastrophe" The most serious damage.

Although emerged, but presumably in the fiery up again today in the real estate market, most of the risk awareness of certain non-bank.

"I told the bank clerk, said that from the head office to branch have attached great importance to the mortgage risk, audit approval to much stricter than ever, so to add a lot of evidence. 20 days, the loan will be completed, But now two months was in the lenders do not. "East of very helpless.

The first suite-two suites bear

Although the banks are tightening mortgage business, but it does not mean that all loans loans, "high quality" high-quality business no longer has.

First-time home buyers loans in the high-aunt on the issue of green light on the way. "Now that the difficult loans than before, but we's kinda smooth." Gao had been renting an aunt, now finally Aodao son of work, can afford to buy the first suite.

"Bank of the implementation of differential housing credit policy, giving priority to support tenants to buy the first set of independent small and medium-sized apartment houses." November 10, 07, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Finance and the trade and economic co-hosted by the University of Florence, Italy, "the first Eighth China's macro-economic operation and Policy Forum ", the Construction Bank of China Deputy Governor Chen Vorontsov said.

"We think this should be re-floating the proportion of larger, the lowest benchmark interest rates can be lowered to 70 percent, and the loan period could be extended, it is now 30, we consider it necessary to be extended to 35, 40. And The second set of housing will have to strictly control, the ratio of down payment and loan ratio is not the same. "

"At present, China's housing mortgage market also has an extremely broad space." Bank of China senior international financial expert Wang Yuanlong, a researcher at the forum, said that "90 percent of China's commercial housing purchased by individuals, 70 percent of the time need to purchase the help of bank loans , In accordance with the current commodity housing more than 3,000 yuan of average and 50 percent of the mortgage rate is estimated that in the next 13 years, there are 17 trillion yuan loan demand. China's major commercial banks accounted for the housing mortgage loans to total loans ratio of all In about 20 percent, space is enormous. "

"The first set of housing to meet the financial innovation is before us one of the most important task." Economic Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission of economic operation and Development Research Office Wang Xiaoguang told the "China Economic Weekly", "The United States is very Ciji Zhai Good financial innovation, we must he learn from his risk-sharing mechanisms, including the securities of risk-sharing in this way, he does not represent a problem with his innovation, China needs precisely such innovation. "

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